2019 Crush Reached 30.04 mln tonnes - a Significant Collapse From 36.51 mln tonnes Seen Only 3 Years ago.
The Australian 2019 cane crush campaign came to an end mid-December. A 29-week campaign saw 30.04 mln tonnes of cane processed by Australia’s 8 milling companies (24 mills) – lagging last season by 2.45 mln tonnes. The Herbert/Burdekin crush ended 21 November and tallied 11.96 mln tonnes. In the Central region, the final crush was 7.74 mln tonnes. The North crushed-out on 25 November and reached 5.88 mln tonnes. In the South, the season’s tally reached 2.85 mln tonnes. The New South Wales industry’s clocked-up 1.6 mln tonnes. Across the Australian sugarcane industry, the season’s CCS level of 14.09 compares to last year’s 14.3 units.
As can be seen in the table, the crush this season yielded almost 6.5 mln tonnes less than that seen only 3 years ago in 2016. In particular, cane yield/ha has declined in the intervening period due to weather and disease impacts. In fact, in 2016, even though cane tonnage was 36.5 mln tonnes, cane area was down round 10,000 ha from the previous season, but cane yield was high at 98.3 tonnes/ha. Furthermore, 2019 saw the worst cane crush since 2012 when 30.00 mln tonnes were processed.
7-Year Low This Season, Possibly Worse Next Season
Prospects for the 2020 season remain uncertain but there are fears that the cane harvest could contract again as growers have responded to low prices this season and have cut-back on areas and input levels in some regions. This grower behaviour would compound any lingering impacts of dry weather. Even so, the industry remains optimistic that 2020 could see the start of the end to global overproduction and a return to profitability.
In this context, the worst performance for the Australian industry over recent years has been in 2010 and 2011 when 3.4 and 3.7 mln tonnes respectively of sugar were produced. Cane growing is exposed to a naturally variable and sometimes extreme climate which has constrained Australia’s sugar production and limited the profitability of the industry. Alternative land use pressures present constant competition and constrain growth for the cane industry with urban encroachment and alternative crops limiting the area of land that is economically viable in some regions.
Expectations at the start of the 2019 season were for a cane harvest some 1.5-2.0 mln tonnes higher. However, a lower harvested area magnified the impact of dry weather in the South and elsewhere along the cane belt. Australia’s sugar production likely reached no more than 4.1 mln tonnes tel quel (actual sugar production data are not yet available). At this level, 2019 sugar production would be 13% lower than last year’s tally of 4.7 mln tonnes, but more importantly, would be the worst industry performance since 2011 when only 3.7 mln tonnes sugar was achieved.
